Moldova is the next target of Russia

Written by Romania Libera

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 09:30

After successful restoration of influence in Ukraine, Chisinau could become the next target of Russia's geopolitical, says agency Stratfor analysis. Russia lever: proocidentale divisions within the coalition in power.

According to Stratfor sources in Moscow, the Republic of Moldova could be the next ex-Soviet republic where Russia will focus on pro-European elements in the political arena after the joint statement from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, who have pledged to work together to resolve the Transnistrian dispute.
There are two ways in which Russia - with Ukraine - would be involved in this issue
short term, consider the analysis group called "private CIA." One is to try to bring under control Transnistria
along with the rest of Moldova, the other is to maintain its hegemony only on Transnistria and to settle the division of the country, without checking the rest of Moldova.

Circumstances in Moldova could make the country vulnerable to Russian plans. The government is weak and divided among the members of the Alliance for European Integration (AEI), is constantly faced with challenges Communist Party (PCM) pro-Russian, which is currently in opposition. Even Monday, August 9, Marian Lupu, the Moldovan Democratic Party, part of the IEA, said that the alliance "does not exist de facto."

One of the reasons for the tensions of the IEA, like Stratfor, initiatives have been controversial interim president Ghimpu as of June 28 declaring the day as the day of Soviet occupation - a decree by the Constitutional Court later rejected. The idea has infuriated not only resulted in Transnistria and Russia to retaliate by blocking exports of wine
Moldovan, but also polarized the pragmatic pro-European elements in Moldova, as the statements of Lupu. This led to the IEA and a declining popularity in the polls back to PCM, paving the way for a possible return to power of Communists in the elections scheduled for November.

Stratfor points out that Russia is not the only foreign power that wants to influence Moldova: Another contender is traditionally Romania, which has close cultural and ethical eastern neighbor. Noting the developments in Ukraine, Moldova, Romania has courted aggressively, contending that it could be the next former Soviet state under Moscow's influence will return. President Traian Basescu, reminds U.S. analysis group, said that Romania and Moldova could be united and that, if Ukraine will make any move towards Transnistria and Moldova, Romania will use the Romanian minority in Ukraine - mainly from Bukovina - to cause Kiev . Ukraine and Russia have taken very seriously Basescu's statements, says Stratfor. Basescu's comments have sparked controversy and within
Moldova, where many citizens are opposed to dividing the country between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova wanting to remain independent.
In the final analysis, Stratfor believes that the Transnistrian conflict could slow down economic and energy of nearby Russia and the EU, given the recent interest in Germany for cutting the frozen conflict
River. Extension is a Russian influence over Ukraine, but to Moldova would be too much, even for benevolent Germany, like Stratfor, who concludes: effect on EU-Russia relationship will depend on how far you decide to go to Moscow and increase their influence over Moldova.